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OeNB raises GDP forecast for this year significantly: +4.9 percent expected

The Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) has raised its forecast for domestic economic growth significantly.

According to the OeNB estimate, the gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by 4.9 percent in real terms this year; in June the National Bank was only forecasting 3.9 percent. For comparison: the Economic Research Institute (Wifo) and the Institute for Higher Studies (IHS) had recently forecast GDP growth of 4.1 and 4.3 percent, respectively, and the OECD of 3.7 percent.

In the corona crisis year 2020, domestic economic output collapsed by 6.8 percent. With the end of the negative effects of the fourth Covid-19 wave and the resolution of the global supply bottlenecks, the economy in Austria will recover quickly and grow by 4.3 percent in the coming year, according to the National Bank on Wednesday. IHS and Wifo expect GDP growth in 2022 of 4.2 and 5.2 percent respectively. For 2023 and 2024, the OeNB expects economic growth of 2.6 percent and 1.8 percent, respectively.

According to the OeNB forecast, the HICP inflation rate will rise to 2.7 percent this year. In the coming year, inflation will climb to 3.2 percent due to energy prices, the introduction of the CO2 tax on July 1st and price increases for non-energy raw materials. For the years 2023 and 2024, the National Bank expects inflation to decline to 2.3 percent and 2.0 percent.

There should be an easing of public debt and unemployment figures in the coming years. The national debt ratio will fall from the historic high of 83.2 percent of GDP in 2020 to 75.5 percent of GDP by 2024, according to the OeNB forecast. According to the AMS, the unemployment rate will decrease from 10.1 percent this year to 6.0 percent by 2024.

(Editorial notes: GRAPHIC 1633-21, 88 x 116 mm) cri / ivn

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Reference-www.finanzen.at

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