Syrium announces report that airlines around the world expect to deliver 45,000 aircraft worth $2.9 trillion by 2040

LONDON–(Business Wire / Korea Newswire) December 17, 2021 — According to Cirium’s ‘2021 Cirium Fleet Forecast’ report, airlines around the world will It is expected to receive 45,000 new, highly fuel-efficient aircraft worth a total of $2.9 trillion.

Ascend, a consulting subsidiary of aviation analytics company Sirium, said in a report that this is a 4% increase from the forecast a year ago.

Ascend offers a positive outlook for the airline industry’s recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.

COVID-19 has had a significant impact on air travel and aircraft deliveries. In fact, aircraft deliveries in 2020 decreased by 43% (600 units) compared to 2019. Although it has recovered to some extent in 2021, it is still below 25% of the 2019 level.

More than 300 aircraft were delivered in 2021 with the introduction of vaccine programs worldwide and the resumption of air travel. Considering the issues surrounding the Boeing 787, this is a remarkable number.

Rob Morris, Global Head of Ascend Consultants, said, “The 2021 Syrian Air Fleet Prospect Report is optimistic about the long-term outlook for the aviation industry. will find it,” he said. “As the number of air passengers is expected to grow by 3.7 percent annually, about 22,000 more airlines will be needed to support this demand,” he said.

“If the actual situation goes as we expect, we will need about 47,200 aircraft by the end of 2040,” Morris said. ” he predicted.

China to rank No. 1 in aircraft deliveries

The Asian market is expected to drive the growth of aircraft deliveries.

Air passengers from China are expected to record the fastest growth, growing by more than 6%, accounting for 20% of global aircraft deliveries.

This number surpasses all other Asia-Pacific countries. The share of aircraft deliveries in Asia-Pacific countries is expected to total 22%.

North American airlines and European airlines are expected to account for 20% and 17%, respectively.

The Middle East is expected to account for only 7%, but it is expected to account for 11% in terms of order value due to the large number of twin-aisle aircraft orders.

South America is expected to account for 7%, the same as the Middle East, with Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) at 4%, and Africa at 3%.

Single-aisle aircraft account for majority of deliveries

According to the Air Corps Forecast Report, cooperative aircraft are expected to account for 70% of total aircraft deliveries and 55% of orders.

In the cooperative aircraft market, which is estimated to be worth $1.6 trillion, 150-seat aircraft are expected to be particularly popular. Cooperative aircraft with 150 seats, such as the Airbus A320neo and the Boeing 737 Max 8, are expected to account for 50% of the total deliveries.

Cooperative aircraft with more than 180 seats, such as the Airbus A321Neo and Boeing B737 MAX10, are also expected to continue increasing their share, rising to 40%.

Both Airbus and Boeing expect to develop a new cooperative aircraft program by the mid-2030s at the latest.

The major players in the $1.1 trillion Cantonese aircraft market are the B787 series and A350 series. ‘Medium’ Cantonese aircraft with 250-300 seats are expected to account for about 65% of the total order volume. In the large Cantonese aircraft market, the Airbus A350-1000 and Boeing B777-9 are expected to compete in a fierce battle.

In the regional aircraft market estimated at $150 billion, turboprop aircraft are expected to account for 30% of the market. Aircraft with 70 seats will lead the turboprop market, and aircraft with 90 seats are expected to gain popularity in the 2030s. China’s MA700 and Embraer’s new series are expected to compete.

Expected effect of replacing old aircraft with new aircraft

About 80% of currently operating airliners are expected to be retired between 2021 and 2040.

As the aviation industry moves to achieve sustainability by reducing carbon emissions, it is increasingly important to replace older aircraft with high fuel burn rates with new models.

About 19,000 airliners are expected to be retired by the end of 2020 and 2040.

Ascend estimates the average economic lifespan of cooperative aircraft and Cantonese aircraft at 22 and 20 years, respectively.

New/modified cargo aircraft market is booming

As air cargo demand remains strong, cargo aircraft capacity (in effective ton kilometers (ATK)) is expected to increase by 3.3% compared to 2019 over the next 20 years, with approximately 3500 cargo aircraft delivered.

It is expected that 30% of the total deliveries will be made by new aircraft and 70% by cargo aircraft converted from passenger aircraft. The delivery of the new aircraft is about 1,050, and is estimated to be worth about $121 billion.

The revitalized e-commerce market is driving demand for aircraft modifications as online shopping increases due to the COVID-19 lockdown.

Aircraft such as the A321, B737-800, A330 and B777-300ER are particularly popular.

The Syrian Air Fleet Forecast is an independent report on the outlook for the global passenger and cargo aircraft market, drawing on Syrium’s extensive portfolio of aviation data and expertise accumulated over many years.

A summary of the 2021 Cirium Air Fleet Prospects Report can be downloaded from the website.

About Cirium

Sirium combines powerful data and analytics to keep the world moving. Delivering insights built on decades of experience in the aviation industry, we deliver logical and informed insights that enable travel agencies, aircraft manufacturers, airports, airlines and financial institutions to shape the future of travel, increase revenue, and enhance customer experience. to make decisions based on Sirium is a subsidiary of RELX, a global provider of information-based analytics and decision-making tools for professionals and business customers. Shares of RELX PLC are traded on the London, Amsterdam and New York stock exchanges under the ticker codes ‘REL’, ‘REN’ and ‘RELX’, respectively.

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[이 보도자료는 해당 기업에서 원하는 언어로 작성한 원문을 한국어로 번역한 것이다. 그러므로 번역문의 정확한 사실 확인을 위해서는 원문 대조 절차를 거쳐야 한다. 처음 작성된 원문만이 공식적인 효력을 갖는 발표로 인정되며 모든 법적 책임은 원문에 한해 유효하다.]


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