WEEKLY OUTLOOK: Air is getting thinner for the record high Dax

FRANKFURT (dpa-AFX) – The Dax (DAX 40) could have a harder time with a continuation of its record run in the new week. “The air gets thinner near the peaks,” headlined the equity strategist Uwe Streich from the Landesbank Baden-Württemberg in his weekly outlook. For the whole of November, the leading index had rushed from record to record in triple steps. According to Helaba, the bull market has now reached historic proportions. The experts therefore recall an old stock market adage: According to this, everything that rises sharply can also fall low.

Recently, stockbrokers had repeatedly emphasized the only thin sales in the values ​​of the Dax family. These are an indication that the willingness to sell shares and take profits has recently been extremely low. With confidence in the central banks, the risks have been ignored. The hope of an ongoing year-end rally remained unaffected by the inflation worries and the dangerously strong increase in the number of corona infections.

The fourth wave of pandemics is now again becoming an issue on the stock exchanges, especially in Europe. Already on Friday this was expressed in the course of an increasingly nervous trade. Austria will go into a lockdown again on Monday, which the acting Federal Health Minister Jens Spahn no longer wanted to rule out in Germany either. “Not only in Germany, but in the entire euro area, the economic outlook is becoming increasingly clouded in view of the rapidly increasing number of infections,” warned Commerzbank investment strategist Chris-Oliver Schickentanz.

“Whether the tightened measures will be sufficient to break the fourth wave should be shown at the beginning of December at the earliest,” wrote Helaba economist Claudia Windt on Friday. It is certain that the current tightening is likely to be detrimental to the Christmas business. All of this comes at an inopportune time for retailers: On Friday, Black Friday will be the most important day for shopping bargains. The days before are considered “Black Week” but also groundbreaking.

On the corporate side, in addition to corona profiteers such as vaccine and diagnostics companies, online retailers and retail stocks could come into focus again due to the Christmas business. By contrast, the reporting season, which has been an important driver for the stock markets in the past few weeks, has largely come to an end. “There are only quarterly figures from a few stragglers on the agenda,” said LBBW expert Streich.

In terms of the economy, the new week is likely to be shaped, among other things, by European purchasing managers’ indices on Tuesday and the Ifo business climate index on Wednesday. The Commerzbank strategist Schickentanz assumes that these leading indicators fell again in November as a result of the pandemic, ongoing supply chain problems and the exploded energy prices. He pointed out that the corona measures in autumn 2020 had already caused activity in the service sector to collapse.

Thanksgiving is celebrated in the USA on Thursday. Many US investors should then treat themselves to a long weekend – also because of “Black Friday”, when trading in New York is only shortened. If the Americans stay away from the market, the stock exchange turnover could then also decline in general in this country later in the week./tih/jsl/he


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